Drill Poker
icm

ICM Adjustments: Pushing and Calling on the Bubble

What ICM and the bubble factor are, why the same 10 BB hand is a shove early but a fold on the bubble, and how stack sizes reshape push and call ranges.

Every push and call chart on this site is built on chip expectation: a chip is worth a chip. In the late stages of a tournament that is false. Busting one spot short of the money costs you your entire payout, while doubling up brings far less than double the money. The gap between "chips" and "money" is ICM, and this page is about how to adjust the base charts for it.

Action

My stack

Opponent stack

AA
AKs
AQs
AJs
ATs
A9s
A8s
A7s
A6s
A5s
A4s
A3s
A2s
AKo
KK
KQs
KJs
KTs
K9s
K8s
K7s
K6s
K5s
K4s
K3s
K2s
AQo
KQo
QQ
QJs
QTs
Q9s
Q8s
Q7s
Q6s
Q5s
Q4s
Q3s
Q2s
AJo
KJo
QJo
JJ
JTs
J9s
J8s
J7s
J6s
J5s
J4s
J3s
J2s
ATo
KTo
QTo
JTo
TT
T9s
T8s
T7s
T6s
T5s
T4s
T3s
T2s
A9o
K9o
Q9o
J9o
T9o
99
98s
97s
96s
95s
94s
93s
92s
A8o
K8o
Q8o
J8o
T8o
98o
88
87s
86s
85s
84s
83s
82s
A7o
K7o
Q7o
J7o
T7o
97o
87o
77
76s
75s
74s
73s
72s
A6o
K6o
Q6o
J6o
T6o
96o
86o
76o
66
65s
64s
63s
62s
A5o
K5o
Q5o
J5o
T5o
95o
85o
75o
65o
55
54s
53s
52s
A4o
K4o
Q4o
J4o
T4o
94o
84o
74o
64o
54o
44
43s
42s
A3o
K3o
Q3o
J3o
T3o
93o
83o
73o
63o
53o
43o
33
32s
A2o
K2o
Q2o
J2o
T2o
92o
82o
72o
62o
52o
42o
32o
22
PushFold
Chart scenario: 10 players, 9 paid, payouts 30/20/14/10/8/6/5/4/3% of the pool; short stack — 8 BB, medium — 20 BB, big — 45 BB; all-in for 10 BB (or the short stack's whole stack).

The chart shows pushing and calling at 10 BB in a typical bubble spot: pick your stack (short, medium, big) and your opponent's stack — the range boundary shifts visibly.

The main rule

ICM barely touches the shove but sharply tightens the call. The pusher still takes the pot down without showdown a lot — opponents fold even more often, because busting is expensive for them too; because of that, shoving into medium and short stacks often gets even wider than the chip-EV baseline. The caller, though, always puts his stack at risk and needs noticeably more equity than the chip model demands.

In practice it looks like this:

  • Shoving tightens only against the big stack; in every other direction it stays the same or widens — opponents over-fold.
  • Calling tightens for everyone — by roughly half again versus the chip model. Hands that call an SB shove in the mid-game (small pairs like 33, K7o, QJo, JTo) become folds on the bubble.

Three stacks — three strategies

Big stack. Your elimination is unlikely, and it costs your opponents dearly. Shove into medium stacks well beyond the base chart, and into short stacks with almost any two: their call is cheap for you and is their tournament life. Call medium stacks with care — even a moderate lost pot changes your position.

Medium stack. The most squeezed seat at the table. Shoving into the big stack is the only direction tighter than baseline: he can call you almost painlessly. Shoves into other mediums and shorts — baseline or wider. Calls — tighter than baseline against everyone.

Short stack. ICM pressures you least: you're near the exit anyway, and doubling up is your only path. Shove at baseline or wider; hold back slightly only into the big stack. Call tighter than in the mid-game only if there are even shorter stacks at the table — then waiting has a point.

What sets the size of the adjustment

  • Distance to the money and the gaps between payout steps. On the bubble and at the final table, crossing big pay jumps, the adjustment peaks. In the middle of the payout zone, where adjacent places differ by pennies, ICM barely operates.
  • Payout structure. A satellite where all prizes are equal is the extreme case: calling with AA against a big stack's shove can be a fold.
  • The number of short stacks at other tables. The more shorts around, the sooner the bubble bursts without you — and the more patience is worth.

Common mistakes

  1. Calling by the base chart on the bubble — the most expensive mistake in tournament poker.
  2. Folding an 8 BB shove against the big stack "to sneak into the money" — the min-cash isn't worth giving up the entire top of the payout ladder.
  3. Playing a big stack and a medium stack the same way: the big one is obliged to apply pressure, the medium one is obliged to endure.
  4. Applying ICM heads-up — heads-up ICM no longer operates; it's pure chips again.

The MTT trainer deals spots with a real payout structure and shows not just "push/fold" but the difference in dollar expectation — which is exactly what separates ICM from chip counting.

Questions & answers

What is ICM in plain words?

ICM (Independent Chip Model) is a way to convert chips into money. In a tournament, 1,000 chips at the start and 1,000 chips on the bubble are worth different amounts, because prizes are paid out unevenly. ICM computes the share of the prize pool each stack expects to win on average.

What is the bubble factor?

A coefficient showing how many times more expensive losing chips is than winning them in a given spot. If the bubble factor is 1.5, then for every chip you can win you are risking one and a half chips in money terms. The higher it is, the tighter you must call.

Who benefits from ICM?

The big stack. He can shove into medium stacks very wide: they have the most to lose, while a loss costs him almost nothing. ICM is worst for the medium stacks — they are the ones who must play tightest.

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